Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 3.357982 3.971334 4.652767 5.464218 6.402340 7.450935 8.709855
2025-07-20 2.449911 3.273847 4.291902 5.633966 7.347259 9.450984 12.218180
2025-07-27 1.906198 2.826534 4.070134 5.853306 8.320442 11.585435 16.199219
2025-08-03 1.483108 2.411512 3.768401 5.860523 8.960054 13.327677 19.876646
2025-08-10 1.136927 2.012720 3.387850 5.651516 9.215559 14.522378 22.900331
2025-08-17 0.872049 1.672378 3.015861 5.364794 9.273467 15.389254 25.497803
2025-08-24 0.708462 1.461612 2.804733 5.283167 9.614345 16.692179 28.866951
2025-08-31 0.586143 1.295578 2.634457 5.231691 9.979077 18.049750 32.441289
2025-09-07 0.521450 1.225444 2.622131 5.452508 10.831428 20.291640 37.687720
2025-09-14 0.447559 1.118768 2.518626 5.480985 11.330347 21.964674 42.111884
2025-09-21 0.385389 1.022865 2.417958 5.495011 11.795370 23.612793 46.635536
2025-09-28 0.330380 0.930277 2.306534 5.466610 12.167335 25.117131 51.026218
2025-10-05 0.315772 0.935121 2.413920 5.926233 13.594635 28.786942 59.858188
2025-10-12 0.284333 0.889917 2.400221 6.121116 14.504227 31.559226 67.266028
2025-10-19 0.259247 0.855736 2.406543 6.362191 15.541933 34.687848 75.656789
2025-10-26 0.225793 0.789125 2.320171 6.371653 16.071175 36.834373 82.285715
2025-11-02 0.187387 0.696821 2.149207 6.146702 16.038877 37.804418 86.602516
2025-11-09 0.152382 0.604396 1.958218 5.837380 15.764691 38.221866 89.794273
2025-11-16 0.130541 0.548927 1.858829 5.749311 16.006430 39.783730 95.550124
2025-11-23 0.112914 0.502709 1.776728 5.693747 16.319318 41.530654 101.853395
2025-11-30 0.105288 0.491372 1.798530 5.932200 17.407218 45.149606 112.601961
2025-12-07 0.093511 0.460117 1.751075 5.962948 17.956371 47.555482 120.796977
2025-12-14 0.082883 0.430009 1.701099 5.978092 18.465412 49.910957 129.065274